Risk Management in Agriculture: Theories and Methods

Wang Jian, Abdur Rehman  © by the authors

ISBN: 978-1-940366-69-2
Published Date: September, 2016
Pages: 350
Paperback: $125
Publisher: Science Publishing Group
To purchase hard copies of this book, please email: book@sciencepublishinggroup.com
Book Description

This book totally focused on the agricultural production and market risk, the affects on agriculture and farmers after China joining WTO. And also considered the concept of entropy as the important foundation of the risk analysis. It analyzed the agricultural risks existed real background in natural and market of China. Concentric and scope by using modern economics principle and risk management tools and especial using information to reduce uncertainty. It gives the descriptions on risk’s sources and distribution, transferring and dissipation, as the regular patterns. For the first two cases they general belonging to production risk management problems, and the last case should let risk market to make up. Therefore, the book concentrates on the agricultural production risk management to agribusiness risk management, so that it finally suggested to design a macro risk management system and a construction of global agricultural risk management system.

Author Introduction

Prof. Dr. Wang Jian, the first author of this book, was born in Beijing on 13 th October, 1958. He currently works in Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, P.R.China as a Professor. He has 110 graduated master students, 11 Ph.D students, published 18 books and more than 190 academic research papers. And he has got so many awards, honors and has the exposure to present the research papers in national and international conference. The main Scientific Research areas are Agricultural Development Programming, Environmental Protection, Agricultural Sustainable Development, Rural Information System and Network Construction, Agricultural Industrialization, Agricultural Risk Management and Insurance with China Access to WTO and the development of poultry industry in Hebei province. Besides, he has remained the Vice President of Baoding Price Society, member of American Rural Sociological Society, Director of the Association for Soft Science of China.

Dr. Abdur Rehman, the second author of this book, was born in District Chitral, on 11 th April, 1982. He currently works as an Assistant Professor, in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province-Pakistan. He completed his B.Sc (Hons) and M.Sc (Hons) degrees in Agricultural Economics from the University of Agriculture Peshawar-Pakistan in 2004 and 2006 respectively. From February 2006 to September 2011, he worked as a Business development officer in Khushhali bank limited Pakistan, from September 2011 to October 2012, he taught as a lecturer of Economics in Institute of Business and Management Sciences, the University of Agriculture Peshawar-Pakistan. Besides, he completed his Ph.D in Agricultural Economics and Management from the Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding P.R.China in 2015. He has published 9 research papers in the national and international journals.

Table of Contents
  • The Whole Book

  • Front Matter

  • Chapter 1 Introduction

    1. 1.1 Raising the Question
    2. 1.2 Risk, Uncertainty and Information
    3. 1.2.1 The Concept of Risk
    4. 1.2.2 The Concept of Uncertainty
    5. 1.2.3 The Relations Between Risk and Uncertainty
    6. 1.2.4 The Relationship Among Information, Risk and Uncertainty
    7. 1.2.5 Significance of Agricultural Informatization
    8. 1.3 The Characteristics and Present Situation of the Agricultural Risk Management
    9. 1.3.1 The Complexity of Agricultural Risk Management Research
    10. 1.3.2 Current Research on Agricultural Risk Management and Decision-Making
    11. 1.4 Research Technical Route, Content and Frame
    12. 1.4.1 Research Technical Route
    13. 1.4.2 Research Content and Frame
    14. 1.5 Book’s Rationales and General Information
    15. 1.5.1 The Certain Rationales of the Book Study
    16. 1.5.2 General Issues About the Study
  • Chapter 2 Economic Theoretical Foundation of the Study

    1. 2.1 Systematic Study of Agricultural Production Economic Problem
    2. 2.1.1 The Analysis Based on Agricultural Production Function
    3. 2.1.2 The Analysis on Consumption Market of Agricultural Products
    4. 2.1.3 Analysis of Input Factors for Agricultural Production
    5. 2.2 The Duality Analysis of the Agricultural Production in Market System
    6. 2.2.1 Definition of Multi-Input Agricultural Production Function
    7. 2.2.2 The Profit Maximization Model
    8. 2.2.3 Supply and Demand Functions
    9. 2.2.4 The Cost Minimization Model
    10. 2.3 The Risk Utility Theory
    11. 2.3.1 The Risk Measure Axiom
    12. 2.3.2 The Utility of the Risk Aversion
    13. 2.3.3 The Risk and the Revenue
    14. 2.3.4 The Utility Principle of the Risk Income
    15. 2.3.5 The Expectation Utility and the Mean-Square Deviation
  • Chapter 3 Agricultural Production and Business Risks Identification

    1. 3.1 Introductions to China Agricultural Risks and Uncertainty
    2. 3.1.1 Agricultural Natural Disasters
    3. 3.1.2 Agricultural Market Risk
    4. 3.2 Analysis of Environmental Impacts on Agricultural Production and Business Risk
    5. 3.2.1 Market Relations between Agriculture and Other Industries
    6. 3.2.2 Agricultural Ecological Economic System
    7. 3.2.3 Agriculture Participates in the Circulation of International Economy
    8. 3.3 Main Existence Forms of Agricultural Production Operational Risks
    9. 3.3.1 Agricultural Market Risk as One of the Main Risk
    10. 3.3.2 The Market Risk and the System Risk Intertwine Mutually in Agriculture
    11. 3.3.3 The Further Expansion of Agricultural Technology Risk
    12. 3.3.4 Farm Credit Risk Has Become the Agricultural New Risk Variety
    13. 3.4 Risk Identification Methods in Agricultural Production Management
    14. 3.4.1 The Principles of Recognizing Agricultural Production Operational Risk
    15. 3.4.2 The Procedures and Methods of Identifying Agricultural Risks
  • Chapter 4 Measuring Agricultural Production Management Risk

    1. 4.1 Risk Probability Distributions and Digital Characteristics
    2. 4.1.1 Continuous Distribution of Risks Events
    3. 4.1.2 Digital Characteristics of Probability Distribution
    4. 4.2 To Measure the Risk and Profit
    5. 4.2.1 Conventional Risk Determination Method
    6. 4.2.2 Method of Game Theory
    7. 4.3 Information Risk
    8. 4.3.1 Absolute Risk of Information
    9. 4.3.2 Relative Risk of Information
    10. 4.3.3 Information Skill Risk
  • Chapter 5 Agricultural Production Risk Management Strategy

    1. 5.1 The Selection of Stable Agricultural Production’s Item
    2. 5.1.1 The Stability Conception of Agricultural Production and Measurement
    3. 5.1.2 The Analysis Method of Deviation Coefficient
    4. 5.2 Diversification Management Strategies
    5. 5.2.1 Correlation Coefficient and Production Composing
    6. 5.2.2 The Case Analysis of Crops Production in Hebei Province
    7. 5.3 The Strategy of Enhancing Management Flexibility
    8. 5.3.1 The Flexibility of Cost
    9. 5.3.2 The Flexibility of Equipments
    10. 5.3.3 The Flexibility of Production Time and Products
    11. 5.4 Optimal Production Portfolio Strategy Model
    12. 5.4.1 Quadratic Programming of the Least Revenue Variance
    13. 5.4.2 The Solution of the Model
    14. 5.5 Stochastic Dominance Analysis on Agricultural Production Risk
    15. 5.5.1 The First Degree Stochastic Dominance
    16. 5.5.2 The Second Degree Stochastic Dominance
    17. 5.5.3 The Application of the First Degree Stochastic Dominance
    18. 5.6 Measures of Agriculture Insurance
    19. 5.6.1 Insurance Premiums and the Amount Calculation
    20. 5.6.2 Disaster Claims
    21. 5.6.3 Necessity of Joining Insurance and the Effect Analysis
    22. 5.6.4 Establishment of Perfect Modern Agricultural Insurance System
  • Chapter 6 Agricultural Market Risk Management Strategy

    1. 6.1 The Futures Exchange of Agricultural Products
    2. 6.1.1 The Basic Operation Procedure of Futures Markets
    3. 6.1.2 Analysis of Agricultural Products Futures Transaction
    4. 6.2 The Price Discovery Function of the Futures Market
    5. 6.2.1 Analysis of Correlation
    6. 6.2.2 Analysis of Causation
    7. 6.2.3 The Basic Analysis
    8. 6.3 The Strategy of Hedge and Its Application
    9. 6.3.1 Optimum Hedging Rate
    10. 6.3.2 The Strategy of Hedge when Basis Changes
    11. 6.3.3 The Open Type Hedging Strategy
  • Chapter 7 Complexity of the Agriculture Production Risk Management

    1. 7.1 Introduction of the Risk System Concept
    2. 7.1.1 The Necessity of Risk System Concept Definition
    3. 7.1.2 The Regularity of the Risk Systems Representation
    4. 7.2 The Risk System Hierarchical Distribution Model
    5. 7.2.1 System Structure Tree
    6. 7.2.2 The Management Entropy in the Structural Analysis of the Risk System
    7. 7.2.3 The Fractal Structure of the Risk Distribution
    8. 7.3 The Risk Gather Model
    9. 7.4 The Risk Transmission Model
    10. 7.4.1 Series Risks Transmission Model
    11. 7.4.2 Parallel Risks Transmission Model
    12. 7.5 The Model of Risk Spread
    13. 7.5.1 Definition of Risk System Spread
    14. 7.5.2 Build up of Risk Spread Model
    15. 7.5.3 Multi Dimensional Stochastic Spread Model
    16. 7.5.4 Lead to Chaos of Risk Spread
  • Chapter 8 Decision Support System of Agricultural Risk Management

    1. 8.1 System Management and Decision of Agricultural Production and Business Risk
    2. 8.1.1 The Basic Idea of Risk Management
    3. 8.1.2 The Agricultural Production and Business Risk Management System
    4. 8.1.3 Management Strategy of Agricultural Production and Business Risk System
    5. 8.2 The Optimal Design of Agriculture Risk Management System
    6. 8.2.1 The Risk Transmission Model of Poultry Epidemic Disease
    7. 8.2.2 Risk Management System Optimization Model
    8. 8.3 Environmental Analysis of Macroeconomic Policy
    9. 8.3.1 Elastic Fractal Dimension Model
    10. 8.3.2 Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis
    11. 8.4 Using Info-tech and Network for Agricultural Risk Aversion
    12. 8.4.1 The Construction of China National Agriculture Information Network System
    13. 8.4.2 The Application of Agriculture Information Network
    14. 8.5 AHP Analysis
  • Chapter 9 Review and Outlook

    1. 9.1 History of Agricultural Risk Study Review
    2. 9.1.1 Modern Economic Development Is Based on the Evolution of Market Concept
    3. 9.1.2 Research Progress of Agricultural Risk Management Methodology
    4. 9.2 Guidelines to the Future Research
  • Back Matter